Tag Archives: European

European Central Bank.

Very quietly and almost unnoticed by financial media in US , the  has reached an important milestone – 10 year anniversary. The ECB came into being June 1, 1998, as 11 European countries drew closer to merging their currencies. The Euro was launched on Jan. 1, 1999 on financial markets, and Euro notes and coins were introduced on January 1, 2002. The bank now controls monetary policy for 15 Euro countries.

 

Bank’s creation followed Maastricht Treaty, which paved the way for the single Euro currency .The treaty mandates fighting inflation as the ECB’s main priority, and so far members of the rate-setting governing council have stayed firmly with that message. This stance has been been somewhat criticized lately. There are claims that this policy has pushed the Euro to high, potentially hurting European exporters.

 

Just how steadfast has ECB been in fulfilling its primary objective? The bank has kept its key rate at 4 percent since June 2007 to fight inflation that hit a record high of 3.6 percent in March and again in May, well above its stated goal of around 2 percent. Bank’s actions are not in line with other central banks, namely Bank of England, and U.S. Federal Reserve, which have been cutting their respective benchmarks.

 

This 10 year anniversary is certainly a success story, but not without some difficulties. European Central Bank has seen the Euro plunged from initial EUR-USD valuation of about 1.2000 to 0.8200 in 2000. Since then, however, the currency has enjoyed a steady rise to a recent high of 1.6000. Almost double from the bottom. Truly a rare feat in among major currencies.

 

Today it may seem strange, but Euro and ECB success was not a forgone conclusion at the beginning. There were many voices both within Europe and outside which not only questioned a wisdom of single currency, but predicted that the monetary union wouldn’t last five years, much less ten. Europe’s Central Bank has managed to clear away the doubts that surrounded the Euro at the beginning 10 years ago. Also, officials state that common currency and Bank’s policies have added 15 million new jobs in the last six years by making trade and travel easier.

 

What is next? Well, as it looks right, ECB is sure to be around for at least 10 more years. It is almost certain that additional countries will join Euro zone. Slovakia, Hungary, Check Republic, Poland and others, pending outcome of national referendums and meeting inclusion requirements. Poland will likely have the biggest impact, as it is home to 40 million people and fast growing economy.

 

Following latest officials remarks, there is general belief that ECB will join the ranks of other central banks and start slushing interest rates. That is expected to strengthen the dollar , which is “uncomfortably weak”, and bring down costs of commodities, mainly oil, the biggest single cause for inflation in Euro zone. Once again in line with Bank’s main role.

 

We are sure to be influenced by European Central Bank decisions for many years to come. Happy birthday!

 

Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com.

 

Eastern European Banking Model

A traditional banking model in a CEEC (Central and Eastern European Country) consisted of a central bank and several purpose banks, one dealing with individuals’ savings and other banking needs, and another focusing on foreign financial activities, etc. The central bank provided most of the commercial banking needs of enterprises in addition to other functions. During the late 1980s, the CEECs modified this earlier structure by taking all the commercial banking activities of the central bank and transferring them to new commercial banks. In most countries the new banks were set up along industry lines, although in Poland a regional approach has been adopted.

 

On the whole, these new stale-owned commercial banks controlled the bulk of financial transactions, although a few ‘de novo banks’ were allowed in Hungary and Poland. Simply transferring existing loans from the central bank to the new state-owned commercial banks had its problems, since it involved transferring both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ assets. Moreover, each bank’s portfolio was restricted to the enterprise and industry assigned to them and they were not allowed to deal with other enterprises outside their remit.

 

As the central banks would always ‘bale out’ troubled state enterprises, these commercial banks cannot play the same role as commercial banks in the West. CEEC commercial banks cannot foreclose on a debt. If a firm did not wish to pay, the state-owned enterprise would, historically, receive further finance to cover its difficulties, it was a very rare occurrence for a bank to bring about the bankruptcy of a firm.

In other words, state-owned enterprises were not allowed to go bankrupt, primarily because it would have affected the commercial banks, balance sheets, but more importantly, the rise in unemployment that would follow might have had high political costs.

 

What was needed was for commercial banks to have their balance sheets ‘cleaned up’, perhaps by the government purchasing their bad loans with long-term bonds. Adopting Western accounting procedures might also benefit the new commercial banks.

 

This picture of state-controlled commercial banks has begun to change during the mid to late 1990s as the CEECs began to appreciate that the move towards market-based economies required a vibrant commercial banking sector. There are still a number of issues lo be addressed in this sector, however. For example, in the Czech Republic the government has promised to privatize the banking sector beginning in 1998. Currently the banking sector suffers from a number of weaknesses. A number of the smaller hanks appear to be facing difficulties as money market competition picks up, highlighting their tinder-capitalization and the greater amount of higher-risk business in which they are involved. There have also been issues concerning banking sector regulation and the control mechanisms that are available. This has resulted in the government’s proposal for an independent securities commission to regulate capital markets.

 

The privatization package for the Czech Republic’s four largest banks, which currently control about 60 percent of the sector’s assets, will also allow foreign banks into a highly developed market where their influence has been marginal until now. It is anticipated that each of the four banks will be sold to a single bidder in an attempt to create a regional hub of a foreign bank’s network. One problem with all four banks is that inspection of their balance sheets may throw up problems which could reduce the size of any bid. All four banks have at least 20 percent of their loans as classified, where no interest has been paid for 30 days or more. Banks could make provisions to reduce these loans by collateral held against them, but in some cases the loans exceed the collateral. Moreover, getting an accurate picture of the value of the collateral is difficult since bankruptcy legislation is ineffective. The ability to write off these bad debts was not permitted until 1996, but even if this route is taken then this will eat into the banks’ assets, leaving them very close to the lower limit of 8 percent capital adequacy ratio. In addition, the ‘commercial’ banks have been influenced by the action of the national bank, which in early 1997 caused bond prices to fall, leading to a fall in the commercial banks’ bond portfolios. Thus the banking sector in the Czech Republic still has a long way to go.

 

In Hungary the privatization of the banking sector is almost complete. However, a state rescue package had to be agreed at the beginning of 1997 for the second-largest state bank, Postabank, owned indirectly by the main social security bodies and the post office, and this indicates the fragility of this sector. Outside of the difficulties experienced with Postabank, the Hungarian banking system has been transformed. The rapid move towards privatization resulted from the problems experienced by the state-owned banks, which the government bad to bail out, costing it around 7 percent of GDP. At that stage it was possible that the banking system could collapse and government funding, although saving the banks, did not solve the problems of corporate governance or moral hazard. Thus the privatization process was started in earnest. Magyar Kulkereskedelmi Bank (MKB) was sold to Bayerische Landesbank and the EBDR in 1994, Budapest Bank was bought by GE Capital and Magyar Hitel Bank was bought by ABN-AMRO. In November 1997 the state completed the last stage of the sale of the state savings bank (OTP), Hungary’s largest bank. The state, which dominated the banking system three years ago, now only retains a majority stake in two specialist banks, the Hungarian Development Bank and Eximbank.

 

The move towards, and success of privatization can be seen in the balance sheets of the banks, which showed an increase in post-tax profits of 45 percent in 1996. These banks are also seeing higher savings and deposits and a strong rise in demand for corporate and retail lending. In addition, the growth in competition in the banking sector has led to a narrowing of the spreads between lending and deposit rates, and the further knock-on effect of mergers and small-hank closures. Over 50 percent of Hungarian bank assets are controlled by foreign-owned banks, and this has led to Hungarian banks offering services similar to those expected in many Western European countries. Most of the foreign-owned but mainly Hungarian-managed banks were recapitalized after their acquisition and they have spent heavily on staff training and new information technology systems. From 1998, foreign banks will be free to open branches in Hungary, thus opening up the domestic banking market to full competition.

 

As a whole, the CEECs have come a long way since the early 1990s in dealing with their banking problems. For some countries the process of privatization still has a long way to go but others such as Hungary have moved quickly along the process of transforming their banking systems in readiness for their entry into the EU.

Arfan Ul Haq is an Asian author. He writes articles about business, economics, banking and finance such as managerial economics and theories of under development online for free.